Pernahkah Kau Merasa.......

Pernahkah Kau Merasa...?
Pernahkah kau merasa menjadi seorang Presiden?
Pernahkah kau merasa menjadi seorang Rakyat kecil?
Pernahkah kau merasa menjadi seorang Anggota Dewan Legislatif?
Pernahkah kau merasa menjadi seorang Pengusaha Kakap?
Pernahkah kau merasa menjadi seorang pengusaha keciL?
Serta rasa-rasa lainnya......
Perhelatan menjadi seorang pimpinan negeri ini tampaknya belumlah usai. Setelah pileg (pemilihan legislatif) yang diselenggarakan 9 April 2009, kini seluruh elemen masyarakat tampaknya mulai bersegera untuk menyambut datangnya PILPRES 2009-2014. Perbincangan mengenai PILPRES ini tak hanya terjadi pada kalangan elit politik. Namun sampai juga pada tataran masyarakat kecil di kampung-kampung di Indonesia.
Perhelatan mencapai kursi no.1 di Indonesia ini juga bukan tanpa janji-janji yang terus digencarkan para Capres-Cawapres. Mulai saling menyerang hingga berkoalisi menjadi ajang yang umum dan terus ditayangkan di berbagai media massa. Penayangan yang berulang pada stasiun televisi yang menunjukkan calon ini yang berkoalisi dengan calon itu dari partai ini dan itu terus melakukan janji dan aksi saling menyerang melalui kritik terhadap pemerintahan yang ada maupun satu dengan lainnya.
Apa yang menjadi berbeda pada PILPRES kali ini dengan PILPRES sebelumnya?Agaknya pada momen kali ini, lebih banyak memunculkan sosok baru dalam ajang PILPRES 2009-2014 dibandingkan 2004-2009. Walaupun yang maju adalah tokoh lama yang sudah dikenal masyarakat, namun dapat dibilang ada 3 kandidat baru yang maju dalam pilpres kali ini. Yakni Prabowo Subianto, Wiranto, dan Boediono. Ketiga sosok ini juga berasal dari latar belakang yang berbeda yang dua diantaranya dari kalangan militer dan seorang lainnya adalah seorang teknokrat.
Menjadi hal menarik adalah dalam momen pemilu kali ini terdapat sosok teknokrat yang mencoba maju menjadi cawapres dan berasal dari golongan independen. Sosok Boediono yang pada Mei 2008 dilantik menjadi Gubernur BI dan setahun masa jabatannya kini maju menjadi cawapres mendampingi capres dari salah satu parpol memunculkan banyak spekulasi berbagai kalangan masyarakat di Indonesia maupun dunia Internasional. Munculnya isu Neo-Liberalisme juga tak ketinggalan gencar mencuat ke permukaan seiring pencalonan Boedionon sebagai cawapres.
Tudingan Boediono sebagai seorang Neo-Lib bahkan bantahan secara langsung dari pihak tertuduh-pun telah dapat disaksikan jutaan masyarakat Indonesia melalui berbagai siaran langsung stasiun televisi swasta.
Terlepas dari perhelatan politik yang kian memanas akhir-akhir ini, kini saatnya Indonesia bangkit menuju keadaan yang lebih optimis sebagaimana dicita-citakan oleh jutaan rakyat indonesia maupun yang dicita-citakan oleh para pejuang terdahulu.
Indonesia memiliki sosok teknokrat yang mencoba untuk membangun negeri ini. Tak cukupkah bangsa ini menggulingkan sosok teknokrat yang dulu sempat menjadi pemimpin bangsa Ini (B.J. Habibie) yang kemudian setelah kepemimpinan beliau Indonesia tak menjadi lebih baik? Industri nasional IPTN yang kemudian berganti nama menjadi Dirgantara Indonesai (DI) kini terlantar setelah pencetusnya memutuskan untuk tak lagi tinggal di negara yang pernah dipimpinnya.
Bahwa pemikiran jauh kedepan terhadap negeri ini telah dimiliki seorang teknokrat (tanpa mengesampingkan pihak lain) guna membangun bangsa. Dengan disiplin ilmu yang telah digelutinya, mereka berjuang memimpin bangsa yang besar ini.
Dengan majunya Boediono sebagai teknokrat, membawa pencerahan bangsa ini untuk menjadi bangsa yang mandiri walau disadari tak akan terjadi secara instan. Saatnya bangsa ini bersatu, membawa wacana yang lebih rasional dalam membawa arah bangsa indonesia menuju rakyat yang adil dan makmur.
Saatnya keberpihakan terhadap golongan tertentu dikikis, mulai berpikir mengenai bangsa ini untuk saat ini dan masa yang akan datang. Tak lagi berpikir sesaat, namun beberapa tahun mendatang dimana kondisi berubah secara cepat.

Imam Ali Ibn Abi al `Izz al-Hanafi

The Islamic Creed - Sharh Al `Aqidah At Tahawiyyah
Commentary by Ali Ibn Abi al `Izz al Adhru`I, Abridged by Abdul Mun`im Saleh Al `Ali Al `Izzi
© 2000 Al Attique Publishers


And (we believe) that Muhammad is His chosen slave, the selected Prophet and an approved Messenger.

The three terms: 'chosen', 'elected' and 'approved,' are more or less synonyms. The point of note here is that a man's perfection lies in how true a slave he is to Allah the Most High. The more true slave a man is, the more perfect and the higher in rank he is. Anyone who believes that the creation can get out of the bond of slavery to Allah, howsoever he may achieve that, and attains higher status with Him, is the most ignorant of His creations. Allah said:

"And they say, 'The Merciful has taken a son.' Glory is to Him. Rather, they are slaves, honored." (Al-Anbiya', 26)

Further, Allah spoke of the Prophet, Muhammad, as a slave in all those places He wished to honor him. He said:

"Glorified is He who took His slave in a journey by night." (A l-Isra', 1)


(As against the above) most theologians and polemicists have argued in favor of the greatness of the Prophets and Messengers on the strength of their miracles. No doubt, miracles are strong evidences. But, evidences are not restricted to miracles. For, the most truthful, as well as the greatest liars, claim to be Prophets. But, so far as the discerning minds are considered, this does not cast any doubt on the affair. Rather, the surrounding details speak for themselves. We know that there are several ways by which people can distinguish between a true claimant and a false one even In ordinary affairs. So, what about claims to Prophethood? Hassan b. Thabit well said:

Even if clear signs had not been with him

The evidences would have reached you by report.

Never did a false prophet rise but his ignorance, lies, corrupt ways, and the devil's hold of him, have been so apparent to anyone endowed with some common sense that he had no difficulty in discovering his falsity. That is because there is no recourse to a Prophet but to order some things and forbid some others. Thus, It is in the scheme of things that he should do things that render his truthfulness manifest. On the other hand, an imposter too cannot escape but do some things and inform (about the Unseen) exposing himself in so doing, in ways more than one. An authentic Prophet is just the opposite of him. To be sure, if there were to be two claimants to Prophethood, one an imposter and the other a true one, then, the matter will definitely end with one's falsehood being exposed and the other's authenticity becoming clear: even if it takes some time. Truthfulness and virtuosity go hand in hand. Similarly, falsehood and perversion go hand in hand. The Prophet, peace be upon him, said in a report preserved in the Sahihayn (Bukhari and Muslim): "Adhere to the truth. For truth leads to piety, and piety leads to Paradise. A man keeps on uttering and pursuing the truth until he is recorded as 'a truthful' with Allah. And, beware of lies. For lies lead to impiety and impieties lead to the Fire. A man keeps on lying, and pursuing lies until he is written 'a liar' with Allah."


Now, when know that a simple thing as the truthfulness of a man, or his falsehood, is apparent from his behavior, then how can a false prophet avoid being detected? No one can fail to distinguish the true prophet from a false one.


We know that Khadijah, Allah be pleased with her, knew the truthfulness of the Prophet from personal experience. Consequently, at the time of his first revelation when he expressed his apprehension in words: "I fear for my life," she responded, "Never. By Allah, He will never let you down. For you join the kin, speak truth, carry (the load of) the feeble, honor the guest, work for the destitute, and lend support to just causes."


Najashi asked for recitation of what the Prophet claimed to be receiving. He too, when he heard a portion of the revelation, remarked: "By God, this and what Moses had brought have the same lamp as their source."


Warqah b. Nawfal said something close to it when he was told about what the Prophet had experienced. Warqah was no ordinary person. He had converted to Christianity and was learned enough to be able to write the Gospels in Arabic. When Khadijah, Allah be pleased with her, told him about what the Prophet had received, Warqah said: 'This is the same Message that Moses received."


Further, Allah the Most High has left to survive some of the signs of how He helped His Messengers and how He destroyed those nations that cried lies to them, such as the signs of the Flood, the drowning of Fir'awn and his armies, etc. When Allah narrated the stories of prophets after prophets in the chapter tided Al-Shu'ara', such as those of Musa, Ibrahim, Nuh and others. He followed up every episode with the words:

"In that was a sign. Most of them were not believers. And, surety, your Lord is All-powerful, All-Merciful." (Al-Shu 'ara', 8-9)

As for us, we know from reliable traditions of the past detailing the lives of the prophets, of the pious men, as also of their adversaries, to feel assured that they were true. This can be realized in ways more than one:


Firstly, they had forewarned their people of the humiliating chastisement that would descend upon them if they remained obdurate rejecters.


Secondly, what followed as a consequence when it became apparent that the people were not going to believe, such as, drowning of Fir'awn and the people of Nuh, etc.


Thirdly, anyone who studied the life and works of the Prophets will be convinced that they bore a high character so that the question of their speaking an untruth was out of question.


As for our Prophet, his case is so obvious that denying his message is tantamount to denying Allah the Most High Himself and alleging tyranny on his part - high above that Allah is.


To explain: If someone thought that Muhammad, on whom be peace, was not a Prophet, rather a tyrant ruler, then, it implies that he ascribed a lie to God, brought before the people something not revealed by Him, then, continued to declare the lawful as unlawful and the unlawful as lawful, declared the old Scriptural Laws null and void, slew the people, and destroyed the true followers of earlier Prophets. Yet, he is led to victories after victories. He claimed that all that was by Allah's command sent down to him. And the Lord God Himself watched him do all that in His Name, annihilating the followers of truth and continuing to lie for no less than twenty-three years. Indeed, Allah seem to have helped him achieve all that, let him overcome everyone, prepared the grounds in supernatural circumstances to lead him to victories. Moreover. He even answered his prayers, destroyed those opposed to him and raised his name over all others. Now, for Allah to let someone commit all that, in His Name, and, instead of uprooting him, help him in his plans, is only possible if Allah Himself is a tyrant, an oppressive Being, and a transgressor. Inevitably, that would lead the people to the belief that this world has no Creator nor a Lord above all. Had there been one, he would have stopped this person from doing all that. Indeed, He would have punished him with an exemplary punishment for the satisfaction of the rest of the world. The 'no action' response does not befit even an ordinary king of this world. How then does it fit the King of kings and the Ruler of all rulers?


We do not deny that many liars have been successful in their own days, and attained glory. But, firstly, they did not succeed wholly, and secondly, the new situation they helped to create did not last long. In time, Allah's Messengers and their followers did away with all that they had established. This has been the Sunnah of Allah with the nations of the past. Indeed, even the unbelievers knew that. Allah said:

"They say, 'A poet for whom we await the Fate's uncertainty.' Say, 'Wait. For lam with you one of those waiting.'" (Al-Tur, 30-31)


(That is, even the pagans were pretty sure that if the Prophet was phony he would be destroyed and, therefore, the best recourse was to wait for the Divine intervention).

How Should Developing Countries Respond to the Current Crisis?

Developing countries considering a fiscal response to the financial crisis should heed the lessons
of the past
The prospect of a deep global slump has brought attention to discretionary fiscal policy as a potential tool for mitigating the severity
of the slowdown. Developing countries, however, have a decidedly mixed record in using fiscal policy to stabilize fluctuations in output. Institutional
weaknesses, the limited role of automatic stabilizers, and limited access to financing for expansions have often led to mistimed or ineffectual
fiscal measures in the past. A recent paper by Servén and Kraay identifies some key lessons that have emerged from these experiences, and suggests that policy makers should take these into account before initiating
a fiscal response.
• Any fiscal response should be commensurate
with the shock experienced. The speed and magnitude of the growth slowdown will differ greatly across developing
economies, varying with their dependence on trade, foreign investment,
and remittances. Thus each country should first carefully assess its expected exposure to the crisis to avoid an unnecessary or excessive fiscal
response.
• Monetary policy options should also be considered. Policy makers need to coordinate
monetary and fiscal interventions.
In many developing countries the central bank’s policy interest rates are still high and inflation is modest, suggesting that there may be room for traditional easing measures. Yet decision makers need to recognize that relaxing monetary policy also entails risks, including downward pressure on exchange rates and the loss of anti-inflationary credibility in countries with a history of monetary recklessness.
• Fiscal expansions need to be sustainably
financed. Otherwise, stimulus measures can backfire and lead to
Luis Servén and Aart Kraay. 2008. “Fiscal Policy Responses to the Current Financial Crisis: Issues for Developing Countries.” World Bank, Development
Research Group, Washington, DC.high inflation, if fiscal deficits are monetized,
or a debt crisis, if developing countries borrow excessively at high sovereign spreads. Only governments with strong fiscal positions and large reserve stocks are well placed to undertake
a successful fiscal response to the crisis.
• Fiscal policy responses to the crisis should be either reversible or likely to yield long-term productivity gains. This is crucial to ensure that long-run fiscal and debt sustainability is not jeopardized by a countercyclical spending increase. Projects that act as automatic stabilizers
are one way to achieve this. For example,
workfare programs with below- market wage offers will attract participants
in downturns but will not be appealing once the economy recovers. Another way of reducing the risk of unsustainable
public debt accumulation is to increase spending in areas with reasonable expectations of long-term growth benefits. For example, China’s successful fiscal expansion in response to the East Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 spent heavily on infrastructure projects for which there was strong local demand. Similarly, spending on social safety nets is particularly crucial in areas in which short-term coping mechanisms (such as selling assets or cutting back on caloric intake) can reduce
productivity and well-being in the long run (through an inability to produce
or through stunting and reduced cognitive abilities).
• Fiscal expansion must be timely but not rushed. To minimize the potential for waste and fraud, policy makers should not rush into new and untried public spending projects. They should first consider expanding existing and well-functioning programs and financing preappraised and “shovel ready” new projects. This is particularly true in developing
countries in which the capacity
to appraise and adequately oversee untried projects is limited. But while it is important to act circumspectly, policy
makers should keep in mind that fiscal interventions need to be timely
FOCUS
How Should Developing Countries Respond to the Current Crisis?to be effective and can be counterproductive
otherwise. In Argentina, for example, a mistimed fiscal impulse in 1996–98 spent public resources when a recovery boom was already under way, undermining the state’s room for maneuver
in the crisis that followed.
• The success of a fiscal expansion depends
greatly on how it is delivered. In a deflationary environment, increases in spending on public projects will generally
be more effective at stimulating aggregate demand than tax cuts or direct transfers to households, which tend to be saved rather than used for consumption. In developing countries with large informal sectors there is the additional problem that tax cuts and social insurance transfers will fail to reach many of the poorest households and firms, thereby increasing inequality
and social tension. Yet public spending programs can be wasteful, captured, and hard to reverse if institutions
are weak. Fiscal policy should factor in such constraints and choose delivery channels tailored to the characteristics
of the economy.
For most developing countries, expansionary
fiscal policy has not been an effective tool for responding to economic downturns in the past. This does not mean that fiscal policy can play no role in mitigating the effects of the current crisis. Instead, it implies that countercyclical fiscal measures should take into account the lessons from past experience to provide successful
short-term relief without undermining
long-term development.

source:http://siteresources.worldbank.org

Developing Countries: A Strategy for Macroeconomic Stability

March 7, 2008— With financial markets being in a state of turmoil, developing countries—often vulnerable to shocks from the outside that are beyond their control—are concerned about possible threats to their own macroeconomic stability.

Even as many developing countries show improved resilience to upsets in rich-country financial markets, continuing turbulence—coupled with its dampening effect on world growth—poses a significant risk to developing economies.

Many countries have accumulated large foreign reserves to protect themselves against interest and exchange rate fluctuations, as well as short-term funding disruptions, but reserves are only a temporary solution.

According to World Bank researchers, the best way forward for developing countries is to develop comprehensive strategies to fight macroeconomic volatility on several fronts, including by improving their ability to absorb external shocks.

“Action is warranted because macroeconomic volatility is a fundamental development concern,” said Luis Servén, Research Manager in the Bank’s Development Research Group, “It has much higher welfare costs for poor countries than for rich countries.”

In Latin America, for example, the direct welfare loss of straying away from a stable consumption path reaches up to 10 percent of annual consumption in some countries, compared to less than 1 percent in industrial countries.

Macroeconomic volatility reduces growth in economic output, and affects future consumption, Servén notes. This effect is seen most in poor countries that are financially and institutionally weak, and that are unable to adjust their fiscal policies in response.

The chicken or the egg?

Click graph to enlarge

Macroeconomic volatility is clearly linked to a lack of development. Not only does it affect welfare more significantly in developing countries; volatility also occurs more frequently in developing countries than in rich countries.

Small countries like the Dominican Republic or Togo experience volatility, but so do large ones such as China and Indonesia. Many volatile economies, for example, Ecuador and Nigeria, are predominantly commodity-exporters, but others like Peru are rapidly industrializing.

“It’s a classic chicken-and-egg question,” said Norman Loayza, Lead Economist in the World Bank’s Development Research Group. “Does volatility result in a lack of development or does underdevelopment reflect itself in macroeconomic fluctuations? ”

Analyzing what puts poor countries at greater risk, Serven, Loayza, Rancière and Ventura say that high macroeconomic volatility in the developing world stems from three sources:

• bigger external shocks, such as from financial and goods markets
• more frequent domestic shocks, including self-inflicted policy mistakes
• weaker “shock absorbers” to cushion the effects of disturbances

A strategy for stability

Coping with these sources of macroeconomic volatility requires a three-pronged strategy for improving economic stability in developing countries, the researchers argue.

Put the house in order

An unstable development process, coupled with self-inflicted policy mistakes, seems to lead to more frequent domestic shocks in developing countries. In fact, the erratic fiscal policy of governments often triggers macroeconomic volatility. In some instances, governments inadvertently raise volatility through inflationary monetary policy.

“In recent research, we have found that social conflict, political instability, and economic mismanagement are the most likely causes of the fluctuations in per capita GDP in many poor countries,” said Claudio Raddatz, also a World Bank economist.

For such countries, external shocks—such as those linked to foreign aid, trade, or even climatic conditions—contribute only a small, though still significant share of macroeconomic volatility.

Policies must be designed to control the level and variability of fiscal spending, to keep monetary and financial policy stable, and to avoid price rigidity, as in the case of pegged exchange rates (which often need to be drastically adjusted).

Build resilience through flexibility

Weaker “shock absorbers” in developing countries allow external fluctuations to produce larger macroeconomic volatility. Traditional shock absorbers like stabilization policies and diversified financial markets are frequently lacking in developing countries.

Fiscal policy is usually “procyclical” in poor countries, expanding in booms and contracting in recessions. But to absorb external shocks, fiscal policy should be more countercyclical. This depends on how far governments can reduce public debt to acceptable levels, increase saving in good times, and be seen as responsible spenders.

Financial markets in developing countries can potentially diversify away the risk posed by external shocks. But they are usually shallow, drying up in times of crisis when they are most needed. Governments can help deepen these markets by protecting creditor and shareholder rights.

“More recently, we have noted that microeconomic policies also play a role,” said Loayza, “When it is difficult for firms to reallocate resources, especially due to labor and financial market restrictions, countries become more vulnerable to economic shocks.”

Firms should be able to adjust to shocks by reallocating their resources across facilities, areas, and sectors. While competition and trade provide the basic mechanisms for this to happen, governments can help by reducing the burden of regulations.

Gear up for stormy weather

The bigger external shocks experienced by developing countries could come from financial markets (for instance, a sudden cessation of capital inflows) or from goods markets. Traditionally, governments have had three options—self-protection, self-insurance, and full hedging and insurance.

• Self-protection (i.e., low trade openness and tightly controlled financial markets) may reduce the vulnerability to external risk. But it blocks the benefits of global integration and increases the likelihood of distortions that will eventually result in large domestic shocks. Other domestic policies may be more appropriate to reduce vulnerability to foreign shocks. In 2007, Loayza and Raddatz found that labor market flexibility can reduce the output losses of terms-of-trade shocks.

• Self-insurance involves carrying resources over time, such as by accumulating foreign reserves in times of prosperity or robust growth. This is a popular option—the ratio of foreign reserves to imports has more than doubled in emerging economies over the past 15 years. But hoarding liquidity, which also implies sacrificing opportunities to invest, is less efficient than hedging through contingent financial instruments.

• Full hedging and insurance refers to transferring resources by securing contingent credit lines or trading commodity-linked options. Sophisticated hedging options are not yet available to developing countries, but financial markets do provide some hedging opportunities that are preferable to self-insurance.

“An optimal strategy to prepare for stormy weather would favor the insurance options,” said Servén, “What is most encouraging is that hedging and insurance instruments, once unfeasible for developing countries, are now becoming available to them. This is a very hopeful sign.”

source:http://econ.worldbank.org

NEXT PRESIDENT 2009-2014

Melihat panasnya pertarungan dari koalisi antara satu capres dan cawapres dari partai apapun dan dimanapun berada sangatlah menarik untuk melihat kebijakan apa yang akan ditempuh kelak. Belajar dari pengalaman yang telah ada, diharapkan tidak lagi ada kebijakan populis yang muncul hanya untuk sekedar menyenangkan rakyat kecil...
Resesi dunia yang banyak diperkirakan para ekonom akan terus berlanjut hingga 2010 harus menjadi salah satu konsentrasi Next President. Bagaimana membangun negeri ini menjadi negeri yang mandiri yang tak lagi tergantung dengan bantuan luar negeri yang hanya menjebak dan menjadi kebijakan yang gali lobang-tutup lobang semata...membangun sistem ekonomi yang membantu rakyat dan bangsa indonesia dari hulu hingga hilir..baik dari segi fiscal maupun moneter.
Pemilu yang telah menyedot dana besar dan akan menelorkan cikal bakal president Indonesai periode 2009-2014 seharusnya mampu untuk melanjutkan apa yang telah dicapai oleh presiden sebelumnya sehingga terdapat kesinambungan dalam membangun negara ini disamping program baru yang akan ditempuh untuk menjadikan Indonesia lebih baik,

20% apbn untuk desa

Lagi-lagi mengenai bursa pilpres. Berbagai cara dilakukan oleh parpol guna menangkan kursi No.1 di Indonesia. Janji-janji pun di obral oleh berbagai parpol. Hal menarik adalah munculnya janji akan memberikan 20%anggaran apbn kepada tiap desa jika parpolnya memenangkan pemilu. yang menjadi menarik bukan hanya nilai yang akan dikucurkan ke tiap daerah, namun bagaimanakah cara mengawasai dari pengelolaan dana tersebut? disadari bahwa hukum di Indonesia belumlah mengikat secara seutuhnya, banyak celah yang dapat ditembuh oleh ahli koruptor negara ini. JIka memang dana yang berkisar 1,5-2 miliar jadi dikucurkan ke tiap desa, mungkinkah akan ada banyak dana yang bocor dalam pelaksanaanya? tidakkah tindakan ini akan memberikan besarnya peluang korupsi pada jajaran bawah pemerintahan di Indonesia?

WB

Morning guys....just wanna know. HOW IF WORLD BANK HAVE SOME LOANS???? and WHAT WILL be HAPPENED?
ada yang mw comment....? so pasti ilmiah ya.....rada gokil dikit gapapa